Dynamic Simulation and Analysis of Land Use Change Based on the Improved CLUE-S Model in Zengcheng City, Guangzhou
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摘要: 利用广州增城市2005年土地利用变更调查数据，通过对比Logistic回归、人工神经网络（ANN）、Autologistic回归三种模型分析土地利用类型与其驱动因子之间的关系，选用最佳拟合优度模型结合CLUE-S模型对该区土地利用格局进行模拟，通过2009年实际土地利用数据验证表明模拟结果较为理想，Kappa指数高达0.8637。在此基础上制定了自然增长和优化战略两种情景模式，对增城市2025年的土地利用格局进行模拟，为该区域土地利用规划修编和今后城市规划布局提供了一定的决策参考依据。
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关键词:
- 增城市
Abstract: Based on the survey data of land use change in Zengcheng city, Guangzhou in 2005, firstly, we propose a method which uses three models including Logistic regression, artificial neural network and Autologistic regression to analysis the relationships between the land use types and their driving factors. Then, we combine the best goodness-of-fit of Autologistic regression model with CLUE-S model to simulate the land use pattern of Zengcheng city in 2009 and validate it using the actual land use data in 2009. Results show that the Kappa index of the simulation reaches 0.8637, an ideal result. Finally, we design two contextual modes: natural growth and optimization strategy, and simulate the regional land use pattern in 2025 based on the previous research, which can provide some decision-making references for the land use planning revision and future urban planning layout of this area.-
Keywords:
- Zengcheng city
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[34]Lin Y P, Chu H J, Wu C F, et al.Predictive ability of logistic regression,auto-logistic regression and neural network models in empirical land-use change modeling: A case study[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 2011, 25(1):65-87 [35]Gobin A, Campling P, Feyen J.Logistic modeling to derive agricultural land determinants: a case study from southeastern Nigeria[J].Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment, 2002, 89(3):213-228 [36]Bueini G, Lambin E.Fire impacts on vegetation in central Africa remote-sensing-based statistical analysis[J].Applied Gergraphy, 2002, 22(1):27-48 [37]黎夏, 叶嘉安.基于神经网络的单元自动机及真实和优化的城市模拟[J].地理学报, 2002, 57(2):159-166 [38]Li Xia, Yeh A G O.Neural-network-based Cellular Automata for Realistic and Odealized Urban Simulation[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002, 57(2):159-166 [39]Besag J.Nearest-neighbour systems and the auto-logistic model for binary data[J].Journal of the Royal Statistics Society, 1972, 34(B):75-83 [40]Pontius R G, Schneider L C.Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed,Massachusetts,USA[J].Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2001, 85(1-3):239-248 [41]摆万奇, 张永民, 阎建忠, 等.大渡河上游地区土地利用动态模拟分析[J].地理研究, 2005, 24(4):206-213 [42]Bai W Q, Zhang Y M, Yan J Z, et al.Simulation of land use dynamics in the upper reaches of the Dadu river[J].Geographical Research, 2005, 24(4):206-213 [1] 刘纪远.中国资源环境遥感宏观调查与动态研究[M]. 北京: 中国科学技术出版, 1996. [2]Vitousek P M, Mooney H A, Lubchenco J, et al.Human Domination of Earth's Ecosystems[J].Science, 1997, 277(5325):494-499 [3]刘纪远，刘明亮，庄大方，等.中国近期土地利用变化的空间格局分析[J].中国科学: 辑, 2002, 32(12):1031-1040 [4]Liu J Y, Liu M L, Zhuang D F, et al.China’s recent spatial pattern of land use change analysis[J].Science in China; D, 2002, 32(12):1031-1040 [5]陈佑启, 杨鹏.国际上土地利用土地覆盖变化研究的新进展[J].经济地理, 2001, 21(1):95-100 [6]Chen Y Q, Yang P.Recent progresses of international study on land use and land cover change[J].Economic Geography, 2001, 21(1):95-100 [7] Lambin E F, Baulies X, Bockstael N, et al.Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC): Implementation Strategy. IGBP Report No.48 and IHDP Report No.10, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, International Human Dimension on Global Environment Change Programme, Stockholm Bonn, 1999. [8] Rindfuss R R, Walsh S J, Turner II B L, et al.Developing a science of land change: Challenges and methodological issues [C]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 2004, 101(39): 13976-13981. [9] Turner II B L, Lambin E F, Reenberg A.The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability[C]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 2007, 104(524): 20666-20671. [10]Verburg P H, Soepboer W, Veldkamp A, et al.Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model[J].Environmental Management, 2002, 30(3):391-405 [11]张永民，赵士洞.模型及其在奈曼旗土地利用时空动态变化模拟中的应用[J].自然资源学报, 2003, 18(3):310-318 [12]Zhang Y M, Zhao S D, Verburg P H.CLUE-S and its application for simulating temporal and spatial change of land use in Naiman Banner[J].Journal of Natural Resources, 2003, 18(3):310-318 [13] Engelsman W.Simulating land use changes in an urbanizing area in Malaysia. (Available online at http://www.gis.wau.nl/~clue/malaysia/Selangor.pdf) [14]Overmars K P, Verburg P H, Veldkamp A.Comparison of a deductive and an inductive approach to specify land suitability in a spatially explicit land use model[J].Land Use Policy, 2007, 24(3):584-599 [15]Castella J C, Verburg P H.Combination of process-oriented and pattern-oriented models of land-use change in a mountain area of Vietnam[J].Ecological Modeling, 2007, 202(3-4):410-420 [16]Castella J C, Kam S P, Quang D D, et al.Combining top-down and bottom-up modelling approaches of land usecover change to support public policies: Application to sustainable management of natural resources in northern Vietnam[J].Land Use Policy, 2007, 24(30):531-545 [17]Trisurat Y, Alkemade R, Verburg P H.Projecting land-use change and its consequences for biodiversity in northern Thailand[J].Environmental Management, 2010, 45(3):626-639 [18]盛晟，刘茂松，徐驰，等.模型在南京市土地利用变化研究中的应用[J].生态学杂志, 2008, 27(2):235-239 [19]Sheng C, Liu M S, Xu C, et al.Application of CLUE-S model in simulating land use changes in Nanjing metropolitan region[J].Chinese Joumal of Ecology, 2008, 27(2):235-239 [20]王健，田光进，全泉，等.基于- 模型的广州市土地利用格局动态模拟[J].生态学杂志, 2010, 29(6):1257-1262 [21]Wang J, Tian G J, Quan Q, et al.Dynamic simulation of land use pattern in Guangzhou based on CLUE-S model[J].Chinese Joumal of Ecology, 2010, 29(6):1257-1262 [22] 李宁.土地利用总体规划指标时空分配研究: 以济南市为例[D]. 济南. 山东师范大学. 2006. [23] 朱现龙.扬州市市辖区土地利用/覆被变化模拟研究[D]. 长沙. 中南大学. 2009. [24]吴桂平, 曾永年, 冯学智, 等.模型的改进与土地利用变化动态模拟: 以张家界市永定区为例[J].地理研究, 2010, 29(3):460-470 [25]Wu G P, Zeng Y N, Feng X Z, et al.Dynamic simulation of land use change based on the improved CLUE-S Model: A case study of Yongding County,Zhangjiajie[J].Geographical Research, 2010, 29(3):460-470 [26] 李宽.县级土地利用总体规划指标空间优化配置研究: 以重庆市秀山县规划为例[D]. 长沙. 中南大学. 2009 [27]吴健生，冯喆，高阳，等.模型应用进展与改进研究[J].地理科学进展, 2011, 31(1):3-10 [28]Wu J S, Feng Z, Gao Y, et al.Recent Progresses on the Application and Improvement of the CLUE-S Model[J].Progress in Geography, 2011, 31(1):3-10 [29]陆汝成，黄贤金，左天惠，等.基于-和 复合模型的土地利用情景模拟研究：以江苏省环太湖地区为例[J].地理科学, 2009, 29(4):577-581 [30]Lu R C, Huang X J, Zuo T H, et al.Land Use Scenarios Simulation Based on CLUE-S and Markov Composite Model: A Case Study of Taihu Lake Rin in Jiangsu Province[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2009, 29(4):577-581 [31]梁友嘉，徐中民，钟方雷.基于和-模型的张掖市甘州区土地利用情景分析[J].地理研究, 2011, 30(3):564-576 [32]Liang Y J, Xu Z M, Zhong F L.Land use scenario analyses by based on system dynamic model and CLUE-S model at regional scale: A case study of Ganzhou district of Zhangye city[J].Geographical Research, 2011, 30(3):564-576 [33] 陈功勋.基于CLUE-S模型和GIS的土地利用变化模型研究[D]. 南京. 南京大学. 2012. [34]Lin Y P, Chu H J, Wu C F, et al.Predictive ability of logistic regression,auto-logistic regression and neural network models in empirical land-use change modeling: A case study[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 2011, 25(1):65-87 [35]Gobin A, Campling P, Feyen J.Logistic modeling to derive agricultural land determinants: a case study from southeastern Nigeria[J].Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment, 2002, 89(3):213-228 [36]Bueini G, Lambin E.Fire impacts on vegetation in central Africa remote-sensing-based statistical analysis[J].Applied Gergraphy, 2002, 22(1):27-48 [37]黎夏, 叶嘉安.基于神经网络的单元自动机及真实和优化的城市模拟[J].地理学报, 2002, 57(2):159-166 [38]Li Xia, Yeh A G O.Neural-network-based Cellular Automata for Realistic and Odealized Urban Simulation[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002, 57(2):159-166 [39]Besag J.Nearest-neighbour systems and the auto-logistic model for binary data[J].Journal of the Royal Statistics Society, 1972, 34(B):75-83 [40]Pontius R G, Schneider L C.Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed,Massachusetts,USA[J].Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2001, 85(1-3):239-248 [41]摆万奇, 张永民, 阎建忠, 等.大渡河上游地区土地利用动态模拟分析[J].地理研究, 2005, 24(4):206-213 [42]Bai W Q, Zhang Y M, Yan J Z, et al.Simulation of land use dynamics in the upper reaches of the Dadu river[J].Geographical Research, 2005, 24(4):206-213
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