基于机器学习的M-V-ESG投资组合优化

M-V-ESG Portfolio Selection Based on Machine Learning

  • 摘要: 为研究在现实约束条件下, 基于机器学习的考虑了环境、社会和治理(Environmental, Social and Governance,ESG)因素的投资组合优化问题,文章首先运用支持向量回归(Support Vector Regression,SVR)、最小绝对收缩和选择算子回归(LASSO Regression)、弹性网络(Elastic Net)3种机器学习模型预测股票市场的收盘价,使用预测价格计算投资组合的均值和方差,用股票ESG得分的加权和来构建投资组合的ESG目标;然后,考虑交易成本、风险资产上下界限制、无风险资产借贷约束和基数约束4个现实约束,提出了均值-方差-ESG投资组合优化模型(M-V-ESG);其次,使用遗传算法求解M-V-ESG模型对应的优化问题;最后,从沪深300指数成分股中选取30只股票进行实证分析,通过样本外检验比较了M-V-ESG模型、去掉M-V-ESG模型中的ESG约束后形成的考虑4个现实约束(交易成本、风险资产上下界限制、无风险资产借贷约束和基数约束)的调整后的均值-方差模型(MM-V)和等比例模型的投资效果。实证结果表明,M-V-ESG模型在夏普比率和ESG得分的表现上均优于等比例模型;而M-V-ESG模型虽然在ESG得分的表现上优于MM-V模型,但在夏普比率的表现上却劣于MM-V模型。由此可见,在投资组合优化的过程中运用机器学习模型及考虑ESG因素,有利于提高投资组合的业绩表现和ESG评分。

     

    Abstract: To study the machine learning-based portfolio optimization problem with environment, social and gover-nance factors under realistic constraints, firstly, Support Vector Regression (SVR), LASSO Regression and Elastic Net, are used to predict the closing price of the stock, which is used to calculate the portfolio's mean and variance, the weighted sum of stock ESG scores is used to construct portfolio ESG objective; then four realistic constraints are considered: transaction costs, threshold constraints, borrowing and lending constraints and cardinality constraints. Based on these considerations, a Mean-Variance-ESG (M-V-ESG) portfolio selection model is proposed. Next, the optimization problem corresponding to this model is solved by the genetic algorithm. Finally, the performance of the model is analyzed in an empirical study using the 30 constituents of the China Securities 300 Index. The investment performance of the M-V-ESG model, the modified Mean-Variance model (MM-V) that retains only four realistic constraints (transaction costs, threshold constraints, borrowing and lending constraints, and cardinality constraints) after removing the ESG constraint from the M-V-ESG model, and the naive portfolio model is compared through out-of-sample testing. The empirical results show that the M-V-ESG model outperforms the equally weighted portfolio in both Sharpe ratio and ESG score. While the M-V-ESG model achieves a higher ESG score than the MM-V model, its Sharpe ratio is lower than that of the MM-V model. The results indicate that incorporating machine learning models and ESG factor into portfolio selection can improve portfolio performance and its ESG score.

     

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