基于超效率SBM模型的广东地区农业用水效率及影响因素

Agricultural Water Use Efficiency and Influencing Factors in Guangdong Region Based on Super-Efficiency SBM Model

  • 摘要: 为提高广东省农业用水效率,使用2010—2021年广东省20个地级市(不含深圳市)的农业用水等数据,运用超效率SBM模型测度农业用水效率,分析其时空分布特征,并采用面板Tobit模型识别影响农业用水效率的因素。结果表明:(1)2010—2021年间,各地级市的农业用水效率均呈现上升趋势,且于2016年后增速显著加大,年均增长率达到8.3%。(2)广东省农业用水效率呈现明显的空间聚集特征,其中,珠江三角洲地区保持较高的农业用水效率;粤东地区的农业用水效率在2015年前低于广东省平均水平,在2016年实现反超;粤西地区的农业用水效率在2015年前与广东省平均水平持平,在2016年后落后于广东省平均水平;粤北地区的农业用水效率低于广东省平均水平。(3)年均降水量、经济发展水平、作物种植结构、科技投入力度、节水灌溉设施是影响农业用水效率的关键因素,其中年均降水量、作物种植结构对农业用水效率构成抑制效应,其他因素均发挥积极的促进作用。综上,研究从时空演变与驱动因素2个方面系统揭示了广东省农业用水效率的变化特征和关键影响因素,为区域农业水资源高效利用与差异化节水政策制定提供了实证依据。

     

    Abstract: To enhance agricultural water use efficiency in Guangdong Province, agricultural water use and related variables from 20 prefecture-level cities (excluding Shenzhen) in Guangdong Province spanning the period 2010-2021 are utilized to analyse agricultural water use efficiency. The global super-efficiency SBM model is employed to evaluate agricultural water use efficiency, analyze its spatio-temporal distribution characteristics, and identify influencing factors through a panel Tobit model. The results indicate: (1) From 2010 to 2021, agricultural water use efficiency in all prefecture-level cities demonstrated an upward trend, with a notably accelerated growth rate after 2016, reaching an average annual growth rate of 8.3%. (2) Agricultural water use efficiency in Guangdong Province exhibits significant spatial clustering characteristics: the Pearl River Delta region consistently maintained a relatively high level of efficiency; the Eastern Guangdong region, which had lower-than-average efficiency prior to 2015, surpassed the provincial average after 2016; the western Guangdong region, which was on par with the provincial average before 2015, but lagged behind the provincial average after 2016; while Northern Guangdong consistently lagged behind the provincial average. (3) Key factors influencing agricultural water use efficiency include annual average precipitation, economic development level, crop planting structure, investment in science and technology, and water-saving irrigation infrastructure. Among these, annual precipitation and crop planting structure exhibit inhibitory effects, whereas the remaining factors contribute positively. To sum up, the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and key influencing factors of agricultural water use efficiency in Guangdong Province have been systematically elucidated. Empirical basis has been provided for the efficient utilization of regional agricultural water resources and the formulation of differentiated water-saving policies.

     

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