Abstract: To thoroughly investigate the impact of land-use change on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage in the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration, land-use changes were analyzed using three phases of land-use data in 2000, 2010 and 2020. The PLUS model was employed to simulate land-use patterns in 2040 under different deve-lopment scenarios, while the InVEST model was used to assess changes in regional ecosystem carbon storage. The results indicate that: (1)From 2000 to 2020, the main characteristics of land use changes in the region include the nearly equal conversion between forestland and farmland, as well as the conversion of cultivated land and water bodies to construction land. (2)The overall carbon storage of the regional ecosystem shows a declining trend, with a decrease of 1.65%. (3) Projections for 2040 indicate that under both the Natural Development Scenario and Economic Growth Scenario, construction land will expand uncontrollably into other land uses, reducing carbon storage by 15.054 1 million tons and 17.605 4 million tons, respectively. Under the farmland protection policy, there is a significant loss of forestland, leading to a substantial decrease in carbon storage. Under the ecological protection scena-rio, the expansion of construction land is somewhat controlled, resulting in a reduction of carbon storage by 2.396 4 million tons. To achieve sustainable development and the "dual carbon" goals(carbon peak/neutrality), enhance ecosystem carbon sequestration capacity, and ensure the sustainable use of agricultural resources and food security, future land planning should adapt to local conditions, considering both farmland and ecological protection policies.