中国天然气水合物产业化开发的能源安全与经济效益评估

Energy Security and Economic Benefit Assessment of the Industrialization Exploitation Development of Natural Gas Hydrate in China

  • 摘要: 针对我国天然气市场供需缺口持续扩大与能源供应安全问题,采用能源安全评价模型、多情境需求预测、基于能源生产率与协整模型的经济效益评估等方法,对天然气水合物的供给潜力、实际供给能力、累计经济效益进行了研究。结果表明:自2015年起,我国能源供应安全水平显著下降;天然气水合物在供给潜力及实际供给能力方面均可有效提升我国能源供应保障程度;至2040年,我国天然气水合物累计经济效益预计将达3 660.27亿元;加速天然气水合物产业化需围绕加强基础研究与技术创新、完善法律法规与标准建设、优化产业布局与规划、加强国际合作与交流等4个关键方面展开。研究可为我国能源结构优化与安全保障提供参考。

     

    Abstract: In response to the widening supply-demand gap in China's natural gas market and the declining level of energy supply security, an integrated approach incorporating energy security evaluation models, future demand trend forecasting under different scenarios, economic benefit measurement based on energy productivity index and cointegration models are utilized to comprehensively analyze the supply potential, practical supply capacity, and cumulative economic benefits of natural gas hydrates. The findings indicate that since 2015, the level of energy supply security has notably declined, and natural gas hydrates possess substantial potential to enhance China's energy supply security, both in terms of theoretical supply potential and practical supply capability. It is projected that the cumulative economic benefits derived from natural gas hydrates in China could reach up to 366.027 billion yuan by 2040. To expedite the industrialization of natural gas hydrates in China, strategic efforts should focus on four key aspects: reinforcing fundamental research and technological innovation, improving legal frameworks and standard systems, optimizing industrial layouts and strategic planning, and enhancing international cooperation and exchanges. These research outcomes provide significant implications for advancing the optimization of China's energy structure and ensuring long-term energy security.

     

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