基于交通轨迹数据的交通碳排放数据构建与特征识别——以深圳市为例

The Construction of Carbon Emission Dataset and the Analysis of Its Spatiotemporal Characteristics Based on Trajectory Data: A Case Study of Shenzhen

  • 摘要: 汽车碳排放(即汽车消耗能源排放的CO2)占总碳排放的25%,对于局地生态环境产生重要影响。然而,无论是以统计年鉴数据为依托的汽车碳排放估算方法还是以数值模式为主的碳排放模拟方法,其时间空间分辨率均较差,精度也有待提高,无法满足现有研究的需求。因此,文章以深圳市为研究区,提出一种顾及时空非稳态的交通碳排放反演方法。其具体步骤包含:(1)将道路区分为城市中心道路、郊区道路及高速公路;(2)在典型道路上选择高峰时段与非高峰时段开展实测实验,获得汽车碳排放系数;(3)结合实测数据,利用随机森林方法,建立汽车碳排放与道路建成环境、时间标签等变量之间的关联;(4)结合轨迹数据,实现研究区域内高精度交通碳排放数据集的构建。最后,探讨交通碳排放时空变化特征,挖掘其与城市功能区之间的关联。结果显示:(1)研究区域内日均汽车碳排放介于2.2×104~3.0×104 kg之间;(2)汽车碳排放具有明显的时空分异特征,工作日的日均排放量为2.4×104 kg,休息日的日均排放量为2.9×104 kg;(3)深圳市的汽车碳排放高值区位于该市的西南部,即南山、宝安、福田区,且此区域的聚类类型为高-高集聚。研究表明交通轨迹数据可以为大范围汽车碳排放计算提供数据基础,顾及时空非稳态的交通碳排放反演方法可以有效提升汽车碳排放数据的时空精度且准确度较高。

     

    Abstract: Vehicle carbon emissions (i.e., CO2 emitted from vehicle energy consumption) account for 25% of total carbon emissions and have a significant impact on local ecological environments. However, at present, both the vehicle carbon emission estimation method based on statistical yearbook data and the carbon emission simulation method primarily using numerical models exhibit poor temporal and spatial resolution and accuracy, which need improvement to meet the demands of existing research. Therefore, Shenzhen city was taken as the research area, a traffic carbon emission inversion method that considers temporal and spatial non-stationarity was proposed. The specific steps include: (1) Differentiating roads into urban center roads, suburban roads, and highways; (2) Conducting field experiments during peak and non-peak hours on typical roads to obtain vehicle carbon emission coefficients; (3) Establishing a correlation between vehicle carbon emissions and variables such as the built environment of roads and time tags using the Random Forest method, combined with measured data; (4) Ultimately constructing a high-precision traffic carbon emission dataset within the study area by integrating trajectory data. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of traffic carbon emissions are explored, and their associations with urban functional zones are uncovered. The results show that: (1) The daily vehicle carbon emissions within the study area range from 2.2×104 to 3.0×104 kg; (2) Vehicle carbon emissions exhibit obvious temporal and spatial differentiation, with average daily emissions of 2.4×104 kg on weekdays, and 2.9×104 kg on weekends; (3) High vehicle carbon emission areas in Shenzhen are located in the southwest of the city, namely Nanshan District, Bao'an District, and Futian District, and these areas show a high-high clustering pattern. The research indicates that traffic trajectory data can provide a data foundation for large-scale vehicle carbon emission calculations, and the traffic carbon emission inversion method that considers temporal and spatial non-stationarity can effectively improve the temporal and spatial accuracy and precision of vehicle carbon emission data.

     

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