Energy Security and Economic Benefit Assessment of the Industrialization Exploitation Development of Natural Gas Hydrate in China

In response to the widening supply-demand gap in China's natural gas market and the declining level of energy supply security, an integrated approach incorporating energy security evaluation models, future demand trend forecasting under different scenarios, economic benefit measurement based on energy productivity index and cointegration models are utilized to comprehensively analyze the supply potential, practical supply capacity, and cumulative economic benefits of natural gas hydrates. The findings indicate that since 2015, the level of energy supply security has notably declined, and natural gas hydrates possess substantial potential to enhance China's energy supply security, both in terms of theoretical supply potential and practical supply capability. It is projected that the cumulative economic benefits derived from natural gas hydrates in China could reach up to 366.027 billion yuan by 2040. To expedite the industrialization of natural gas hydrates in China, strategic efforts should focus on four key aspects: reinforcing fundamental research and technological innovation, improving legal frameworks and standard systems, optimizing industrial layouts and strategic planning, and enhancing international cooperation and exchanges. These research outcomes provide significant implications for advancing the optimization of China's energy structure and ensuring long-term energy security.