| Citation: |
HE Miao, ZHANG Yang, LUAN Shaohan, GAO Hui, ZHANG Wenxia, HUANG Junli. Analysis of China's Urban and Rural Consumption Carbon Emissions Based on LMDI-Tapio-GA-BP[J]. Journal of South China Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2024, 56(6): 1-16. DOI: 10.6054/j.jscnun.2024071
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Based on IPCC-CLA method, the carbon emissions from household consumption in China were traced. And the driving factors were decomposed and decoupled by the LMDI-Tapio method. Then the total carbon emissions and driving effects trends in 2030 were predicted by the ARMI-GA-BP method. The results show that the carbon emissions from living consumption of urban and rural residents in China were rising from 2003 to 2019, and in general, the carbon emissions from living consumption of urban residents are relatively higher, and the growth of indirect carbon emissions from living consumption of urban residents is the main source of the widening gap between urban and rural carbon emissions. The decoupling of main driving factors indicates the negative decoupling between urban and rural energy utilization intensity, energy utilization structure, population and household consumption carbon emissions. Urban per capita income level and household consumption carbon emissions show a phased transition between expansionary negative connection and expansionary connection, and the decoupling state of rural per capita income level shows a good transition to weak decoupling. In the influence trend of driving factors, the driving role of urban population will further rise, the driving role of rural population will further decline, and the driving role of energy intensity will further decline. The prediction of urban direct carbon emissions and rural direct carbon emissions from 2020 to 2030 will always be on the rise, but the growth rate of carbon emissions will peak in 2021 and then show a downward trend, with a large decline in urban direct carbon emissions and a relatively slow decline in rural direct carbon emissions. The impacts of changes in income and urban population are obvious. Taking into account the overall development of urban and rural areas, and paying attention to the energy utilization in urban and rural areas and the innovation of consumption patterns in rural areas are effective ways to promote residents consumption carbon emission reduction.
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