| Citation: |
FENG Bin, ZHOU Jianwei, YU Tao. Investigating the Spatio-temporal Evolution and Correlation of Ecosystem Service Value and Ecological Risk amid Freeze-Thaw Cycles: A Case Study in the Eastern Region of South Qiangtang Basin[J]. Journal of South China Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2024, 56(5): 77-90. DOI: 10.6054/j.jscnun.2024066
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Climate change significantly impacts temperature-sensitive ecosystems like permafrost and glaciers, resulting in changes in regional ecosystem service values (ESV) and ecological risks index (ERI). To reveal the effects of climate change on ecosystem service values and potential ecological risks in typical permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, land use data from 2000 to 2020 is utilized. Methods including ESV evaluation, ERI assessment, bivariate spatial autocorrelation, and geographic detector analysis are employed to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution, spatial associations, and spatial differentiation characteristics of ESV and ERI in the eastern part of the Southern Qiangtang Basin. The findings show that: (1)From 2000 to 2020, ESV in the eastern region of the South Qiangtang Basin exhibited an upward trajectory, witnessing a cumulative increase of 5.76% (27.698 billion yuan). The primary contributors to ESV were grassland and water, contributing over 98.70% to the total va-lue. The overall distribution pattern of ESV manifested as high in the middle and low in the peripheral regions, with medium-value areas representing the central focus (the area was about 70.37% of the total area of the study area). (2) The regional trend of ERI displayed an overall increase, with a distribution pattern characterized by low values in the southeast and high values in the northwest, predominantly extremely low risk areas (the area was about 60.68% of the total area of the study area). (3) Regional ESV and ERI exhibited a negative spatial correlation (Moran's I < 0), with the primary LISA clustering identified as low value-low risk(the area was about 34.26% of the total area of the study area). (4) The spatial differentiation of regional ESV and ERI is influenced by both na-tural factors and economic factors, with NDVI emerging as the predominant factor driving their spatial divergence (q values of 0.55 and 0.19, respectively). The research results indicate that its necessary to adopt tailored ecological protection measures based on the spatiotemporal distribution and variation characteristics of ESV and ERI in the research area, in order to promote the sustainable development of the regional ecological environment.
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