基于InVEST模型的雅鲁藏布江中游土地利用变化及碳储量时空分布研究

Study on Land Use Changes and Spatiotemporal Distribution of Carbon Storage in the Middle Yarlung Zangbo Basin Based on the InVEST Model

  • 摘要: 为揭示雅鲁藏布江中游地区土地利用变化特征及碳储量的时空分布特征,文章以雅鲁藏布江中游山南市的贡嘎县、扎囊县等7个县区为研究区,基于1980—2020年研究区的土地利用数据,参照相近区域的碳密度数据,使用InVEST模型的碳存储模块,模拟历史不同时期不同情景下的土地利用/覆被变化过程,分析研究区的碳储量变化及其时空变化特征,以揭示其时空演变规律。结果表明:(1)1980—2020年,研究区的土地利用类型发生了显著变化。总体表现为未利用地、建筑用地、水域、灌木林地、耕地的面积呈现动态增加的现象,冰川、草地、林地的面积呈降低趋势。(2)1980—1990年,草地面积降低量最大,耕地面积增大的速率最大;1990—2000年, 林地面积增加量最大,水域面积减小的速率最大;2000—2010年,草地面积缩减量最大,冰川面积缩小的速率最大;2010—2020年,建筑用地面积的增加量和增加速率最大。(3)1980—2020年,研究区碳储量总体呈波动下降趋势,净减少约165.86×104 t,降幅约为6.39%,变动过程分为“先升(1980—1995年)、后下降(1995—2010年)、再微升(2010—2020年)”3个阶段。其中,中期快速下降期累计减少超205×104 t,主导了整体下降态势。(4)草地占研究区所有土地利用类型总碳储量的比例最大(75.42%~85.19%),且近30年来呈现波动下降的趋势。(5)研究区在1980—2020年间的碳储量的空间分布具有一致性,碳储量较高区域主要分布在扎囊县、贡嘎县、乃东区的南部地区以及琼结县、桑日县的大部分地区,与草地的分布情况高度吻合。(6)土地利用变化对陆地生态系统碳储存能力具有差异性影响,碳密度较高的地类林地转变为碳密度较低的地类是导致研究区碳储量动态下降的主要因素。综上可知,雅鲁藏布江中游生态系统碳储量呈现波动增加趋势,从不同土地利用类型的动态变化结构来看,未来应控制建设用地的扩张,进一步加强草地、林地保护,优化用地布局,从而提高区域碳储量。

     

    Abstract: To reveal the characteristics of land use change and the spatio-temporal distribution of carbon storage in the middle reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, the seven counties of Shannan City in the middle reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, including Konggar County and Zhanang County, were taken as the study area. Taking a typical afforestation area within this region as the study site, Land use data from 1980 to 2020 were employed, carbon density data from analogous regions were referenced, and the carbon storage module of the InVEST model was applied to simulate land use/cover change processes under different historical periods and scenarios. The spatiotemporal evolution of carbon storage was analyzed to reveal its changing patterns. The main findings are as follows: (1) From 1980 to 2020, land use types underwent significant transformations. Overall, the areas of unused land, builtup land, water bodies, shrubland, and cropland showed a dynamic increase, while glaciers, grassland, and forestland exhibited decreasing trends. (2) During 1980-1990, grassland decreased most substantially, whereas cropland expanded at the fastest rate; during 1990-2000, forestland increased most markedly, while water area shrank most rapidly; during 2000-2010, grassland reduction was the largest and glacier retreat was the fastest; during 2010-2020, builtup land experienced the greatest increase in both area and growth rate. (3) From 1980 to 2020, the carbon storage in the study area showed an overall fluctuating downward trend, with a net reduction of approximately 165.86× 104 t, representing a decrease of around 6.39%. The variation process can be divided into three stages: an initial increase (1980-1995), a subsequent decline (1995-2010), and a final slight increase (2010-2020). Among these stages, the cumulative reduction exceeded 205×104 t during the rapid decline in the middle stage, which dominated the overall downward trend. (4) Among all land use types in the study area, grasslands account for the largest proportion of total carbon storage, ranging from approximately 75.42% to 85.19%, yet this proportion showed a fluctuating downward trend over the past three decades. (5) From 1980 to 2010, the spatial distribution of carbon storage in the study area exhibited consistent characteristics. Regions with high carbon storage were primarily distributed in Zhanang County, Konggar County, the southern area of Naidong District, Qonggyai County, and most areas of Sangri County, which is highly consistent with the spatial distribution of grasslands. (6) Land use changes exerted differential impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon sequestration capacity. The conversion of forestland (with higher carbon density) to land types with lower carbon density was the primary factor driving the dynamic decline in carbon storage. In summary, the carbon storage of the ecosystem in the middle reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River exhibits a fluctuating increasing trend overall. Given the dynamic structure of di-fferent land use types, future efforts should focus on controlling builtup land expansion, strengthening the protection of grassland and forestland, optimizing land use layout, and enhancing regional carbon storage.

     

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