吴浩, 梅志雄, 李诗韵. 基于改进CLUE-S模型的广州增城市土地利用变化动态模拟与分析[J]. 华南师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 47(6): 98-104.
引用本文: 吴浩, 梅志雄, 李诗韵. 基于改进CLUE-S模型的广州增城市土地利用变化动态模拟与分析[J]. 华南师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 47(6): 98-104.
Dynamic Simulation and Analysis of Land Use Change Based on the Improved CLUE-S Model in Zengcheng City, Guangzhou[J]. Journal of South China Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2015, 47(6): 98-104.
Citation: Dynamic Simulation and Analysis of Land Use Change Based on the Improved CLUE-S Model in Zengcheng City, Guangzhou[J]. Journal of South China Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2015, 47(6): 98-104.

基于改进CLUE-S模型的广州增城市土地利用变化动态模拟与分析

Dynamic Simulation and Analysis of Land Use Change Based on the Improved CLUE-S Model in Zengcheng City, Guangzhou

  • 摘要: 利用广州增城市2005年土地利用变更调查数据,通过对比Logistic回归、人工神经网络(ANN)、Autologistic回归三种模型分析土地利用类型与其驱动因子之间的关系,选用最佳拟合优度模型结合CLUE-S模型对该区土地利用格局进行模拟,通过2009年实际土地利用数据验证表明模拟结果较为理想,Kappa指数高达0.8637。在此基础上制定了自然增长和优化战略两种情景模式,对增城市2025年的土地利用格局进行模拟,为该区域土地利用规划修编和今后城市规划布局提供了一定的决策参考依据。

     

    Abstract: Based on the survey data of land use change in Zengcheng city, Guangzhou in 2005, firstly, we propose a method which uses three models including Logistic regression, artificial neural network and Autologistic regression to analysis the relationships between the land use types and their driving factors. Then, we combine the best goodness-of-fit of Autologistic regression model with CLUE-S model to simulate the land use pattern of Zengcheng city in 2009 and validate it using the actual land use data in 2009. Results show that the Kappa index of the simulation reaches 0.8637, an ideal result. Finally, we design two contextual modes: natural growth and optimization strategy, and simulate the regional land use pattern in 2025 based on the previous research, which can provide some decision-making references for the land use planning revision and future urban planning layout of this area.

     

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