Dynamic changes of ecological footprint based on ARIMA Model for Guangzhou City

In order to understand the ecological sustainability of Guangzhou, the ecological carrying capacity per capita and the ecological footprint per capita municipality from 2003 to 2013 in Guangzhou is calculated by applying the ecological footprint model. Based on the computed result， the development trend from 2014 to 2020 is also predicted by using ARIMA model. The results show that：the ecological footprint per capita on the rising from 2003 to 2013，an anual rate of 6.7% the ecological carrying capacity per capita is always bigger the ecological footprint per capita，which means the ecological deficit，and Guangzhou city is in serious unsustainable development state.The predicted results show the ecological footprint per capita has been rising from 2013 to 2020 with increasing to 4.066 2 hm2/cap in 2020，which would be 1.02 times than that of 2013，the ecological carrying capacity per capita remained unchanged. Considering the unstable development in Guangzhou， several policy recommendations is proposed to reduce eco-footprint，including optimizing the industrial structure，improving the efficiency of resource utilization，and changing the mode of economic development. Improving the ecological carrying capacity of resources is an effective way to promote environmental and socioeconomic sustainable development.