The Spatio-temporal Evolution of Coordinated Development of Social Economy, Ecological Environment and Tourism Industry in Central Cities of the Yangtze River Delta and the Associated Factors: A Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on Panel Data

Based on the evaluation index system of coordinated development of social economy, ecological environment and tourism industry, the coordination degree of the three systems in the central cities of the Yangtze River Delta from 2008 to 2017 is measured with the coordinated development evaluation model. The spatio-temporal evolution is analyzed with the gravity center model and the standard deviation ellipse, and the related factors are explored with the spatial econometric model. The following results are obtained. First, the coordinated development of the three systems in the central cities of the Yangtze River Delta presents a fluctuating upward trend in time, but the scope of hot cities is relatively fixed. In terms of space, the center of gravity gradually moves to the northwest, and the distribution pattern of "southeast-northwest" is always maintained. Second, the coordinated development degree has significant positive correlation of global space, a relatively stable spatial clustering pattern and a significant spatial spillover effect. Third, market driving, traffic accessibility, foreign investment, labor aggregation, resource endowment and tourism scale have significant promoting effects on the coordinated development of the three systems in this region, while the impact coefficient of environmental regulation and tourism effect is significantly negative.