A Study of the Labor Parameter in the Model of Indirect Economic Loss in Typhoon Disaster

A survey on labor force losses in Guangzhou and Shenzhen during the typhoon Mangkhut was conducted in order to study the parameter of the affected labor force in the indirect loss model of natural disasters. Based on the data of 845 questionnaires, the three parameters of sector of the affected labor, recovery time and recovery path were analyzed. They were also compared with the assumed parameters in the AMIL model, a model for frontier assessment of indirect disaster loss. The following results were obtained. First, in terms of the sector of labor force affected by the disaster, five sectors (information transmission, software and information technology services, manufacturing, finance, construction, and wholesale and retail) had the most labor force affected. The AMIL model's assumptions understated the impact on the workforce in 14 sectors, such as information transmission, software and information technology services, finance and construction. Second, on the 4th day after the typhoon, all labor had recovered, and the recovery time was far less than the assumed time of the AMIL model. Third, the labor recovery path showed a trend of being first fast and then slow. The power function had a good fitting effect on the recovery path, which was different from the hyperbolic tangent function curve assumed by the AMIL model. Fourth, the labor force in Guangzhou was more seriously affected by typhoon disaster than that in Shenzhen and the labor force reco-very rate was slower. The AMIL model still has room for improvement in the function setting and selection of the dynamic recovery path of labor force after a disaster.