Landscape Pattern Analysis and Dynamic Prediction of Liuxi Basin in South China Based on CA-Markov Model

Based on ArcGIS and IDRISI platform, Landscape ecology principles and landscape index are introduced to analyze the landscape pattern of the Liuxi basin, which is the most important water sources of Guangzhou, from 2000 to 2010 and its dynamic degree and the dynamic trend of the landscape pattern of Liuxi basin are predicted with CA-Markov model．The results show that：1) The changes of Liuxi basin landscape pattern from 2000 to 2010 are obvious; the cropland and forestland decreased while the others presented an increasing trend from 2000 to 2010. River watershed landscape pattern changes dramatically in the region, and landscape pattern changes to stabilize in the upstream region. 2) The prediction results of CA-Markov model show that the dominance degree and fragmentation degree of all landscape types would be declined from 2010 to 2020, and the changes of landscape pattern in the Liuxi basin is mainly driven by human activities, and the far-reaching impact on the landscape pattern will continue. Overall, the landscape pattern change in the basin is mainly manifested as follows: the cropland and forestland are decreased while the garden plot and construction land are increased. The ecological environment is becoming more fragile．