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基于熵权-正态云模型的水资源可持续性评价

刘莉 汪丽娜

刘莉, 汪丽娜. 基于熵权-正态云模型的水资源可持续性评价[J]. 华南师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2020, 52(1): 77-84. doi: 10.6054/j.jscnun.2020012
引用本文: 刘莉, 汪丽娜. 基于熵权-正态云模型的水资源可持续性评价[J]. 华南师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2020, 52(1): 77-84. doi: 10.6054/j.jscnun.2020012
LIU Li, WANG Lina. The Entropy Weights-Based Approach to and the Normal Cloud Model for Water Resources Assessment[J]. Journal of South China normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2020, 52(1): 77-84. doi: 10.6054/j.jscnun.2020012
Citation: LIU Li, WANG Lina. The Entropy Weights-Based Approach to and the Normal Cloud Model for Water Resources Assessment[J]. Journal of South China normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2020, 52(1): 77-84. doi: 10.6054/j.jscnun.2020012

基于熵权-正态云模型的水资源可持续性评价

doi: 10.6054/j.jscnun.2020012
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金项 41501021

详细信息
    通讯作者:

    汪丽娜, 副教授, Email:wanglina@m.scnu.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: TV213.9

The Entropy Weights-Based Approach to and the Normal Cloud Model for Water Resources Assessment

  • 摘要: 通过分析影响城市水资源可持续发展的要素, 构建水资源可持续性评价指标, 并利用云模型可同时兼顾模糊性与随机性的特征, 将其引入水资源可持续性评价中, 建立了基于熵权-正态云模型的水资源可持续性评价模型; 以地处南方丰水区且经济发达的广东省珠江三角洲经济区(简称“珠三角”)为例, 分析并量化珠三角9个城市的水资源可持续性水平及其空间分异性.结果表明:珠三角的水资源可持续状况整体较好, 呈现东部城市的水资源可持续性高于西部城市、近海域城市的水资源可持续性高于远海域城市的空间分布格局; 造成珠三角城市水资源可持续性的空间差异的最主要原因为水资源禀赋, 其次为经济与社会发展水平.
  • 图  1  3项指标评价标准云图示意

    Figure  1.  Standard clouds of 3 evaluating indicators

    图  2  珠三角水资源可持续性评价空间分布图

    Figure  2.  The spatial distribution maps of water resources sustainability assessment in PRD

    图  3  珠三角2005—2017年平均水资源禀赋状况

    Figure  3.  The water resources endowment in PRD from 2005 to 2017

    图  4  珠三角2005—2017年平均经济及社会发展水平状况

    Figure  4.  The economic and social development in PRD from 2005 to 2017

    表  1  区域水资源可持续性评价指标

    Table  1.   The indicators for assessment of regional water resources sustainability

    指标类别 指标编号 评价指标
    水资源禀赋 1 年降水量/mm
    2 地表水资源量/m3
    3 地下水资源量/m3
    4 水资源总量/m3
    水资源开发利用状况 5 供水总量/m3
    6 供水工程蓄水量/m3
    社会及经济发展水平 7 地区生产总值/亿元
    8 人均GDP/(万元·人-1)
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  评价指标分级标准

    Table  2.   The grade standards for evaluating indicators

    评价指标 Ⅰ级 Ⅱ级 Ⅲ级 Ⅳ级 Ⅴ级
    年降水量/(mm) (1 711.01, 1 795.52] (1 795.52, 1 880.02] (1 880.02, 1 964.53] (1 964.5, 2 049.04] (2 049.04, 2 133.55]
    地表水资源量/(×108 m3) (17.24, 43.10] (43.10, 68.97] (68.97, 94.83] (94.83, 120.69] (120.69, 146.56]
    地下水资源量/(×108 m3) (2.01, 10.17] (10.17, 18.33] (18.33, 26.49] (26.49, 34.65] (34.65, 42.81]
    水资源总量/(×108 m3) (17.70, 43.52] (43.52, 69.35] (69.35, 95.17] (95.17, 120.99] (120.99, 146.82]
    供水总量/(×108 m3) (5.03, 18.57] (18.57, 32.11] (32.11, 45.65] (45.65, 59.18] (59.18, 72.72]
    供水工程蓄水量/(×108 m3) (0.41, 3.26] (3.26, 6.12] (6.12, 8.98] (8.98, 11.84] (11.84, 14.69]
    地区生产总值/亿元 (1 295.53, 3 557.66] (3 557.66, 5 819.79] (5 819.79, 8 081.91] (8 081.91, 10 344.04] (10 344.04, 12 606.17]
    人均GDP/(万元·人-1) (3.24, 4.87] (4.87, 6.49] (6.49, 8.11] (8.11, 9.74] (9.74, 11.36]
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  5个作用分域的云数字特征

    Table  3.   The numerical characteristics of 5 grade standards

    评价指标 Ⅰ级 Ⅱ级 Ⅲ级 Ⅳ级 Ⅴ级
    Ex En Ex En Ex En Ex En Ex En
    年降水量 1 753.26 14.08 1 837.77 14.08 1 922.28 14.08 2 006.79 14.08 2 091.29 14.08
    地表水资源量 30.17 4.31 56.03 4.31 81.90 4.31 107.76 4.31 133.63 4.31
    地下水资源量 6.09 1.36 14.25 1.36 22.41 1.36 30.57 1.36 38.73 1.36
    水资源总量 30.61 4.30 56.43 4.30 82.26 4.30 108.08 4.30 133.91 4.30
    供水总量 11.80 2.26 25.34 2.26 38.88 2.26 52.41 2.26 65.95 2.26
    供水工程蓄水量 1.83 0.48 4.69 0.48 7.55 0.48 10.41 0.48 13.27 0.48
    地区生产总值 2 426.60 377.02 4 688.72 377.02 6 950.85 377.02 9 212.98 377.02 11 475.10 377.02
    人均GDP 4.05 0.27 5.68 0.27 7.30 0.27 8.92 0.27 10.55 0.27
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  8项指标的权重

    Table  4.   The weights of 8 evaluating indicators

    指标类别 评价指标 指标权重
    水资源禀赋 年降水量 0.060
    地表水资源量 0.163
    地下水资源量 0.154
    水资源总量 0.163
    水资源开发利用状况 供水总量 0.082
    供水工程蓄水量 0.127
    社会及经济发展水平 地区生产总值 0.172
    人均GDP 0.079
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  珠三角水资源可持续性综合评价结果

    Table  5.   The evaluation results of water resources sustainability in PRD

    城市 评价结果
    惠州市 3.08
    广州市 3.03
    珠海市 2.94
    深圳市 2.86
    江门市 2.83
    肇庆市 2.35
    佛山市 2.23
    东莞市 1.74
    中山市 1.63
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2019-09-09
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