武江流域洪水时间序列的R/S分析

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金资助项目

详细信息

R/S Analysis on Flood Time Sequences in Wujiang River

摘要: 该文证明了武江流域洪峰流量具有偏随机游动和分形特征，并且武江流域洪水时间序列具有明显的持久性和长期记忆特性.结合V 统计，表明武江流域的年洪峰流量的持久性经过6年之后会消失；分析了武江流域53场洪水的持久性明显增加趋势的原因.
- 洪水时间序列 /
- 武江流域 /
- Hurst指数 /
- R/S分析
Abstract: According to the result of characteristic of peak flow, this paper has proved that the peak flow has the random and fractal characteristics. The index of Hurst displayed the obvious trend of the series of flood in Wujiang River. And the flood has characteristics of durability and long-term memory. V value show that the ascend trend of peak flow will disappear after six years. Durability of 53 floods are obviously increase on WuJiang River. The results show that, the change of flood time sequence have been important influenced by human activities ,typhoon and drastically changed climate.
- flood time series /
- Wujiang Basin River /
- the index of Hurst /
- R/S analysis