洪水频率计算的比较研究

Comparative Study on the Flood Frequency Analysis

  • 摘要: 本文以武江流域犁市(二)站的洪水历年为研究对象,详细论证Gumbel-Logistic的计算该流域洪水频率的可行性。并讨论了不同的洪水特征量组合下的洪水重现期,揭示了武江流域洪水的重现期。其中,2006年洪峰流量为8800m3/s的洪水,其重现期为131年。并与与P-III型分布模型计算出的599年的重现期相比较,两种方法得出武江流域犁市(二)站2006年洪水重现期的差值达468年。导致偏差的主要原因是由于,Gumbel-Logistic模型为二元变量模型,比单变量输入的P-III分布模型能更全面的反映洪水重现期。

     

    Abstract: This paper demonstrated detailed the feasibility of using the Gumbel-Logistic method on the flood frequency in Wujiang River. This paper discuss ed WuJiang return period of the flood return period of Wuajing River, based on the different combination of the flood characteristics. The results displayed that the flood return period in 2006, which is 8800m3/s peak flow flood, is 131 years. Compared to the 599 return period, which calculated by the P-III method, thers has 468 years difference between the two menthods. The main reason is theGumbel-Logistic method need two variables, it can reflect the more details information on the flood.

     

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