基于股票各板块内部的单向自适应图神经网络的股价预测模型

Stock Price Prediction Model Based on One-Way Adaptive Graph Neural Network Inside Each Stock Sector

  • 摘要: 传统的股价预测方法通常仅看作时间序列预测问题,不能利用到股票的空间信息,而使用图神经网络(GNN)进行预测,却缺少股票间关系的图数据结构。文章基于同一板块内股票之间具有相似的趋势,龙头股对其他股票具有明显的领涨或领跌的影响,提出一种基于股票各板块内部的单向自适应图神经网络模型(Stock-GNN)对股价进行预测。该模型的单向图学习模块可以自适应地训练出股票间的图数据结构,再利用时序卷积模块和图卷积模块提取时间和空间上的特征。并爬取A股四大板块(银行、白酒、电力设备、生物医药)的真实数据进行实证分析,与现有的股票预测模型AR、GARCH、CNN-GRU、TPA-LSTM、CNN-LSTM-Attention以及不按板块划分的图神经网络(All-SGNN)进行比较。实验结果表明,Stock-GNN预测模型的预测误差更低,相关系数更高。

     

    Abstract: Traditional stock price prediction methods usually treat it as a time series forecasting problem, without utilizing the spatial information of the stocks. On the other hand, using Graph Neural Networks (GNN) for prediction lacks the graph data structure of the relationships between stocks. This paper proposes a unidirectional adaptive Graph Neural Network model based on the similarity of trends between stocks within the same sector and the significant impact of leading stocks on other stocks, called Stock-GNN, to predict stock prices. The unidirectional graph learning module of the model can adaptively train the graph data structure between stocks, and then extract features in time and space using the temporal convolution module and the graph convolution module. The real data of the four major sectors of A shares (banks, liquor, power equipment, and biomedicine) were crawled for empirical analysis, and compared with existing stock prediction models such as AR, GARCH, CNN-GRU, TPA-LSTM, CNN-LSTM-Attention, and an all-sector Graph Neural Network (All-SGNN). The experimental results show that the Stock-GNN prediction model has lower prediction error and higher correlation coefficient.

     

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