基于地理加权回归的江南市镇发展动力机制分析(1736—1949年)

The Dynamic Mechanism Analysis of Jiangnan Towns Based on Geographical Weighted Regression from 1736 to 1949

  • 摘要: 为揭示18世纪中叶至20世纪中叶江南市镇分布演变的驱动力并展现其时空演变过程,分别以1736—1850年和1851—1949年的市镇数量为因变量,以其所对应的人口数量、人口密度、河流密度和海拔中位数为自变量,建立了江南市镇数量演变的时空模型(GWR模型);再将市镇核密度图和产业区图进行叠加,以观察产业因素对市镇发展的影响.研究结果表明:(1)1736—1850年,江南地区市镇分布存在空间集聚性;1851—1949年,集聚性有所降低. (2)江南人口增长较为稳定地驱动全局市镇数量增长. (3)1736—1850年,河流密度显著地驱动了江南东部地区的市镇增长. (4)1851—1949年, 江南东部部分地区河流密度与本地市镇数量增长之间转为负相关关系. (5)1851—1949年,环太湖地区及江南西北地区的河流密度显著地驱动市镇数量增长. (6)未能纳入GWR模型分析的区域中所出现的市镇数量爆发性增长现象与当地植棉业密切相关.

     

    Abstract: To reveal the driving factors for the distribution of cities and towns in the areas south to the Yangtze River from the mid-18th century to the mid-20st century as well as their spatio-temporal evolutionary process, a spatio-temporal evolution model (GWR model) of the variation in the number of cities and towns was established by taking the number of cities and towns during 1736-1850 and during 1851-1949 as dependent variables and their corresponding population scale, population density, river density, and altitude median as independent variables, respectively. The kernel density map and the industrial area map were combined to investigate the effects of industry on the deve-lopment of cities and towns. The research results show the following. During 1736-1850, distribution of cities and towns in the areas south to the Yangtze River presented a spatial agglomeration, but during 1851-1949, the spatial agglomeration was reduced. The population growth in the areas south to the Yangtze River drove the stable increase in the overall number of cities and towns. During 1736-1850, the river density significantly drove the increase in the number of cities and towns at the eastern part of the areas south to the Yangtze River. During 1851-1949, the river density in the eastern part of the areas south to the Yangtze River turned out to be negatively correlated to the increase in the number of cities and towns in this area. During 1851-1949, the river density in the areas around Taihu Lake and the northwest of the areas south to the Yangtze River significantly drove the increase of cities and towns. The explosive increase of towns and cities in areas excluded in the analysis of GWR model was closely related to local cotton planting industry.

     

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