句法视角下城市道路交通的预测研究——以广州市人民路高架桥拆除问题为例

Study on the Prediction of Urban Road Traffic from the Perspective of Syntax:A Case study on Renmin Viaduct Demolition in GuangZhou

  • 摘要: 基于空间句法理论中较前沿的NAchoice算法,着眼于我国第一座城市高架桥广州市人民路高架桥拆除问题进行案例分析,为空间句法在中国城市交通预测中的应用提供实证,探寻一种较好拟合实际交通流的预测模型,为路网优化提供参考依据. 论证分析从广州人民南路段交通堵塞原因、拆桥与否对桥下路段车流的影响、人民路段周边主干道交通疏导能力评估等3个方面展开,研究发现:(1)车流量偏大是人民南路段交通堵塞问题频发的原因之一;(2)高架桥的拆除会小幅增加桥底路段车流,但不一定会造成车流量的叠加式剧增;(3)人民路段及其周围主干道分流能力受到质疑,建议等到有较强疏导能力路段建成后,再拆除人民路高架桥;(4)空间句法NAchoice模型与广州市交通流数据具有较好拟合程度,运用该模型进行城市道路交通预测具有可行性.

     

    Abstract: Taking the Renmin Viaduct in Guangzhou the first urban viaduct in Chinaas research object, this study has combined the theoretical research with empirical study. This research is to provide empirical evidence for the application of space syntax in Chinese urban traffic forecasting, to explore a better forecasting model to fit the actual traffic flow and to provide reference for the optimization of road network. Based on the normalized angular choice (NAchoice)an advanced algorithm of Space Syntax theorythe paper has discussed the case from three aspects : current traffic situation of Renmin South road, the effects viaduct demolition takes on Renmin road traffic flow and assessment of traffic evacuation ability within arterials in the scope. Conclusions can be obtained as follows: (1) Large traffic volume contributes to the frequent traffic jam in Renmin Road; (2) Removing elevated line will not necessarily make all the traffic flows on the viaduct stack up to Renmin Road, though slight increase of transportation in Renmin Road is possible; (3) Other main roads take limited effect on regulating and alleviating traffic pressure on Renmin Road. Therefore, Renmin Viaduct shouldnt be removed until roads are built to share the heavy traffic burden on Renmin Road; (4) NAchoice model has preferably fitted the collected traffic flow data, making it reasonable to apply space syntax on urban traffic simulation. This research also aims at exploring a contextual model which is able to evaluate and even instruct further traffic network design as well as the urban context preservation and extension.

     

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