基于密度依赖模型的广州制造业企业死亡风险研究

Mortality Risk of Manufacturing Companies in Guangzhou based on Density Dependence Model

  • 摘要: 本文分析在同一个产业环境中不同组织形式的演化特征,概括它们之间的竞争和协作关系,判断这些关系对制造业中组织演化的影响,在此基础上提出有利于广州制造业持续发展的调控对策和建议。本文利用组织生态学中的种群密度依赖原理及时变变量Cox模型分析广州制造业企业死亡风险,得出以下结论:(1)2000年-2012年期间,广州制造业的种群密度与组织死亡风险呈正向的关系;(2)组织年龄与组织死亡风险呈负向的关系,且组织年龄可以抑制种群密度对组织死亡的影响;(3)在相同的组织年龄水平下多元化企业面临的死亡风险大于专一型企业的死亡风险,并且随着组织年龄的增大,两者的死亡风险差距逐渐扩大;(4)种群密度对外资企业死亡风险的影响大于对内资企业死亡风险的影响。但外资企业一旦存活,随之组织年龄的增大,其死亡风险跟内资企业面临的死亡风险基本相同;(5)种群密度对非劳动密集型企业死亡风险的影响大于对劳动密集型企业的死亡风险。

     

    Abstract: This paper analysis the evolution characteristics of different forms in the same industry environment, summarizes the competition and collaboration relationships between them, and determines the impact of these relationships on organizational evolution in manufacturing, then we propose countermeasures and suggestions which is conducive to the sustainable development of Guangzhou's producing industry. By using the population density dependency theory of organizational ecology and time-varying variables Cox model, the basic conclusions are achieved: (1) From 2000 to 2012, population density of Guangzhou manufacturing industry was positively related to the risk of the populations death; (2) Organizations age has negative relationship with the risk of the populations death and inhibits the effect of the population density on tissue death; (3) In the same age level, the risk of death that diversified enterprises are facing is greater than that of specifically oriented enterprises, but with organizations age increasing, the gap of the risk of death between them is growing; (4) The effect of the population density on foreign enterprises in risk of death is greater than the impact on domestic enterprises. But once being survived, with organizational age increasing the risk of death of foreign enterprises is basically the same as that of the domestic enterprises; (5) The influence of the population density on non-labor-intensive enterprises in the mortality risk is greater than that of labor-intensive enterprises.

     

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